Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Sign up for The Media Today, CJR’s daily newsletter. A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global ...

Source: Thunder Bay, Canada. Used with permission of Dan Hunt, MD. Coincidences attract our attention because they seem weird, odd, or unlikely. Their improbability stimulates wonder—“what are the ...

In school, we are trained to think that math problems always have one correct answer. But this is not necessarily true for problems dealing with probability, if the method used to reach the described ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...